Brian
It looks like you're including a constant, which would not be
appropriate in a location choice model where the model estimation is
using random sampling of alternatives. You can only use alternative-
specific constants when you have a small number of alternatives, and
they are always in the same order-- like in a mode choice model. Try
dropping the constant for starters.
Also - I can't tell if you have a survey of households with observed
locations, or are sampling from synthetic households. The former is
definitely better, especially if you can sample only those who have
moved within the past few years.
Paul
On Feb 29, 2008, at 11:12 AM, brian voigt wrote:
> I'm currently working on estimating the Household Location Choice
> Model and am having trouble producing a worthwhile result. I'm not
> able to get the model to converge no matter the combination of
> variables that I have included in the estimation procedure.
> Additionally, the convergence statistic is always the same as the
> number of observations (even when I change the number of households
> represented in the households_for_estimation table). Finally, as can
> be seen in the output, the coefficient estimates are all extremely
> small (with correspondingly small t-values). Does this indicate that
> there is a problem with my households_for_estimation table?
>
> Perhaps I am confused about the function of the estimation
> procedure. I understand that the number of movers and the unplaced
> agents are derived by the Household Relocation Model, but how do
> these movers and unplaced agents relate to the records in the
> households_for_estimation table? More specifically, how can there be
> more movers / unplaced agents than there are records in the
> households_for_estimation table? Perhaps too I don't understand
> correctly what the dependent variable is that we are modeling. I
> thought the estimation procedure evaluated the location choice for
> each household in the household_for_estimation table compared to the
> attributes of the other records in the choice set. Is this correct?
>
> I've attached the output from an attempt at estimation to help
> illustrate my point. Any input / advice would be most appreciated?
> brian
>
> Brian Voigt
> Spatial Analysis Lab
> University of Vermont
> Burlington, VT 05405
>
> brian.voigt_at_uvm.edu
>
> C:\myworkspace\chittenden\estimation>python run_estimation.py -c
> chittenden.estimation.estimation_config_voigt --use-
> trapperkeeper=false
> Cache Directory set to: C://urbansim_cache/chittco_1990_baseyear_cache
> Start simulation run: started on Fri Feb 29 13:18:32 2008
> random seed = (1,)
> Starting simulation for year 1990: started on Fri Feb 29 13:18:32
> 2008
> Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/
> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\run_multiprocess.log
> Logging to file: C://urbansim_cache/
> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\year_1990_log.txt
> Simulate year 1990: started on Fri Feb 29 13:18:32 2008
> Creating object
> urbansim
> .datasets
> .vacant_land_and_building_type_dataset
> .VacantLandAndBuildingTypeDataset
> Creating object
> urbansim
> .datasets.development_constraint_dataset.DevelopmentConstraintDataset
> Creating object urbansim.datasets.zone_dataset.ZoneDataset
> Creating object
> urbansim.datasets.household_dataset.HouseholdDataset
> Creating object
> urbansim.datasets.gridcell_dataset.GridcellDataset
> Creating object urbansim.datasets.job_dataset.JobDataset
> Creating object
> urbansim.datasets.target_vacancy_dataset.TargetVacancyDataset
> Creating object
> urbansim.datasets.job_building_type_dataset.JobBuildingTypeDataset
> Creating object
> urbansim
> .datasets
> .development_event_history_dataset.DevelopmentEventHistoryDataset
> Creating object urbansim.datasets.rate_dataset.RateDataset
> Running Household Relocation Model (from
> urbansim.models.agent_relocation_model): started on Fri Feb 29
> 13:18:33 2008
> compute_probabilities ...
> compute_choices ...
> Number of movers: 11301
> Running Household Relocation Model (from
> urbansim.models.agent_relocation_model): completed...4.8 sec
> Unplace 941 agents.
> Estimating Household Location Choice Model (from
> urbansim.models.household_location_choice_model): started on Fri Feb
> 29 13:18:38 200
>
> Number of agents for estimation: 5000
> Sampling locations for estimation ...
> Sampling done in 1 chunk(s).
> Choice set size: 30
> Compute variables ...
>
> urbansim.gridcell.is_in_floodplain.......................0.3 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.ln_distance_to_highway.................0.3 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.ln_residential_units_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim.gridcell.residential_units_within_walking_distance....0.6 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.ln_residential_units_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.7 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.ln_total_employment_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim.gridcell.total_employment_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim.gridcell.number_of_jobs.................0.3 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.total_employment_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.3 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.ln_total_employment_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.3 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.ln_total_population_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim.gridcell.total_population_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim.gridcell.population.....................0.0 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.total_population_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.1 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.ln_total_population_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.1 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.number_of_jobs_within_walking_distance....0.1 sec
> urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim
> .gridcell.number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim.gridcell.is_in_development_type_group_SSS....0.7 sec
>
> urbansim
> .gridcell
> .number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.8 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance: completed...
> 0.9 sec
>
> urbansim
> .gridcell.percent_high_income_households_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim
> .gridcell.number_of_high_income_households_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim.gridcell.number_of_high_income_households
>
> urbansim.household.is_high_income............0.0 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.number_of_high_income_households: completed...0.0
> sec
>
> urbansim
> .gridcell.number_of_high_income_households_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.1 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.number_of_households_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim.gridcell.number_of_households...........0.0 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.number_of_households_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.1 sec
>
> urbansim
> .gridcell.percent_high_income_households_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.2 sec
> urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim
> .gridcell.number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim.gridcell.is_in_development_type_group_SSS....0.0 sec
>
> urbansim
> .gridcell
> .number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.1 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance: completed...
> 0.1 sec
> urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim
> .gridcell.number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance
>
> urbansim.gridcell.is_in_development_type_group_SSS....0.0 sec
>
> urbansim
> .gridcell
> .number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance:
> completed...0.1 sec
>
> urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance: completed...
> 0.1 sec
>
> urbansim.household.income_category.......................0.0 sec
>
> urbansim.household.is_without_children...................0.0 sec
> urbansim.household_x_gridcell.cost_to_income_ratio
> urbansim.gridcell.total_annual_rent
>
> urbansim.gridcell.total_residential_value........0.6 sec
> urbansim.gridcell.total_annual_rent:
> completed.......0.6 sec
> urbansim.household_x_gridcell.cost_to_income_ratio:
> completed...0.6 sec
>
> urbansim.household_x_gridcell.income_and_year_built......0.3 sec
> Estimate ...
> submodel: -2
> WARNING: Cannot find increase
> Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC): 34047.9738166
> Number of Iterations: 10
> ***********************************************
> Log-likelihood is: -17005.9869083
> Null Log-likelihood is: -17005.9869083
> Likelihood ratio index: 0.0
> Adj. likelihood ratio index: -0.00105845077366
> Number of observations: 5000
> Suggested |t-value| > 2.91842306587
> Convergence statistic is: 5000.0
> -----------------------------------------------
> Coeff_names estimate std err t-
> values
> D2LAKE -2.20663e-016 0.000496508
> -4.4443e-013
> constant 9.5983e+015 1.65882e+014
> 57.8622
> BFLOOD -1.31402e-013 0.242338
> -5.42225e-013
> BLDHW 8.11058e-015 0.0318991
> 2.54257e-013
> BLDUW -3.49379e-015 0.0801334
> -4.35996e-014
> LE_W 2.20441e-015 0.0158806
> 1.38812e-013
> BP_TW 3.0224e-015 0.0879053
> 3.43825e-014
> JOBS_WWD -3.68946e-019 8.16678e-006
> -4.51764e-014
> PCW -6.93212e-018 0.00267387
> -2.59254e-015
> BPHIW 1.86301e-017 0.00165672
> 1.12451e-014
> PIW 1.83701e-016 0.00412956
> 4.44844e-014
> PRW -1.81968e-017 0.00109088
> -1.66809e-014
> PWATER -5.58252e-016 0.00327898
> -1.70252e-013
> PWETLA -2.67156e-016 0.00240074
> -1.1128e-013
> INC_CAT 0.359024 1.84247e+013
> 1.94861e-014
> NO_KIDS -10.5912 1.78019e+014
> -5.94949e-014
> COST_INC_RAT 4.78316e-016 0.0382962
> 1.24899e-014
> INC_YRBLT 1.85108e-022 6.06333e-009
> 3.0529e-014
> ***********************************************
> Elapsed time: 12.9514644907 seconds
> Estimating Household Location Choice Model (from
> urbansim.models.household_location_choice_model): completed...19.6 sec
> Simulate year 1990:
> completed...................................26.4 sec
> Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/
> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\year_1990_log.txt
> Starting simulation for year 1990:
> completed........................26.4 sec
> Start simulation run:
> completed.........................................26.4 sec
> Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/chittco_1990_baseyear_cache
> \run_multiprocess.log_______________________________________________
> Users mailing list
> Users_at_urbansim.org
> http://www.urbansim.org/mailman/listinfo/users
Received on Mon Mar 03 2008 - 22:12:56 PST
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.2.0 : Mon Mar 03 2008 - 22:12:57 PST