Re: [UrbanSim-Users] estimating ELCM

Thanks Hana,

This solves a mystery for us. We didn't see anything in the manual
about how submodels of the employment location choice models are
applied to subsets of the data. I now see where this is listed in the
creators for the models and also, obliquely, in the user guide.
However, it would be nice if this relationship were more explicitly
stated in the user guide entry for each model.

As it's listed now in section 8.4.14 (p. 124 in my copy of the
manual), the value of submodel_string is listed among 20 or so of the
default values for the model constructor. It would be more helpful
if, for each description of each model, before the "Model
Configuration" subsection, there were a subsection, titled "Model
Estimation", that states the mapping between submodels in the
specification and the subsets of the data these submodels are applied
to.

Thanks as usual for your prompt help,

Brian

On Jan 28, 2008, at 5:17 PM, Hana Sevcikova wrote:

> Brian,
>
> Your specification is defined for submodel 1 (i.e. sector_id 1) but
> there are no commercial jobs for this sector. If you don't want to
> distinguish submodels in your estimation, set the submodel number in
> the specification file to -2.
>
> Hana
>
>
> Brian Miles wrote:
>> Hello,
>> I'm beginning to estimate employment location choice models. I've
>> been able estimate the industrial model group, but the commercial
>> model group is failing (the output that follows this message
>> contains the successful industrial run as well as the failing
>> commercial run).
>> I'm using the same basic specification for both cases. I'm
>> assuming the problem lies in our
>> "jobs"/"jobs_for_estimation" (they contain the same data right
>> now) tables (which we know need some work). However I've compared
>> my jobs data to the eugene data and to what is described in the
>> manual, and can't find anything obviously wrong aside from
>> possibly the fact that our commercial jobs are heavily clustered
>> in one sector of jobs, and this sector's jobs are heavily
>> clustered in a few gridcells (see first below).
>> So what I'm wondering is, as we start sorting through our jobs
>> data, should we be on the lookout for any other obvious causes to
>> the problem we are having estimating the
>> commercial_employment_location_choice_model?
>> Thanks,
>> Brian
>> mysql> select * from job_building_types;
>> +------+--------------+------------+
>> | id | name | home_based |
>> +------+--------------+------------+
>> | 1 | home_based | 1 |
>> | 2 | commercial | 0 |
>> | 3 | industrial | 0 |
>> | 4 | governmental | 0 |
>> | 5 | other | 0 |
>> +------+--------------+------------+
>> 5 rows in set (0.00 sec)
>> mysql> select distinct sector_id,count(sector_id) as count from
>> jobs where building_type=2 group by sector_id order by sector_id;
>> +-----------+-------+
>> | sector_id | count |
>> +-----------+-------+
>> | 2 | 1 |
>> | 3 | 1 |
>> | 5 | 5 |
>> | 7 | 4 |
>> | 8 | 20 |
>> | 9 | 10 |
>> | 10 | 7 |
>> | 11 | 91 |
>> | 12 | 16 |
>> | 13 | 10981 |
>> +-----------+-------+
>> 10 rows in set (0.02 sec)
>> mysql> select distinct sector_id,count(sector_id) as count from
>> jobs where building_type=3 group by sector_id order by sector_id;
>> +-----------+-------+
>> | sector_id | count |
>> +-----------+-------+
>> | 1 | 38 |
>> | 2 | 9178 |
>> | 3 | 243 |
>> | 4 | 925 |
>> | 5 | 1971 |
>> | 6 | 13 |
>> | 7 | 66 |
>> | 8 | 292 |
>> | 9 | 547 |
>> | 10 | 345 |
>> | 11 | 1474 |
>> | 12 | 115 |
>> | 14 | 34 |
>> | 15 | 148 |
>> +-----------+-------+
>> 14 rows in set (0.02 sec)
>> mysql> select count(distinct grid_id) from jobs where sector_id=13;
>> +-------------------------+
>> | count(distinct grid_id) |
>> +-------------------------+
>> | 22 |
>> +-------------------------+
>> 1 row in set (0.03 sec)
>> mysql> select count(distinct grid_id) from jobs where sector_id=2;
>> +-------------------------+
>> | count(distinct grid_id) |
>> +-------------------------+
>> | 199 |
>> +-------------------------+
>> 1 row in set (0.02 sec)
>> C:\myworkspace\chittenden\estimation>python run_estimation.py -c
>> estimation_conf
>> ig_services --use-trapperkeeper=false --save-estimation-to-
>> baseyear- db=false
>> Cache Directory set to: C://urbansim_cache/
>> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache
>> Start simulation run: started on Mon Jan 28 16:50:04 2008
>> random seed = (1,)
>> Starting simulation for year 1990: started on Mon Jan 28
>> 16:50:04 2008
>> Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/
>> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\run_mul
>> tiprocess.log
>> Logging to file: C://urbansim_cache/
>> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\year_199
>> 0_log.txt
>> Simulate year 1990: started on Mon Jan 28 16:50:04 2008
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.vacant_land_and_building_type_data
>> set.VacantLandAndBuildingTypeDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.development_constraint_dataset.Dev
>> elopmentConstraintDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.zone_dataset.ZoneDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.household_dataset.HouseholdDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.gridcell_dataset.GridcellDataset
>> Creating object urbansim.datasets.job_dataset.JobDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.target_vacancy_dataset.TargetVacan
>> cyDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.job_building_type_dataset.JobBuild
>> ingTypeDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.development_event_history_dataset.
>> DevelopmentEventHistoryDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.rate_dataset.RateDataset
>> Running Employment Relocation Model (from
>> urbansim.models.agent_relo
>> cation_model): started on Mon Jan 28 16:50:05 2008
>> compute_probabilities ...
>> compute_choices ...
>> Number of movers: 2436
>> Running Employment Relocation Model (from
>> urbansim.models.agent_relo
>> cation_model): completed...4.2 sec
>> 'agents_grouping_attribute' set to job.building_type.
>> Estimating Industrial Employment Location Choice Model
>> (from urbansi
>> m.models.employment_location_choice_model): started on Mon Jan 28
>> 16:50:10 2008
>> Number of agents for estimation: 15389
>> Sampling locations for estimation ...
>> Submodel 1 sampled in 1 chunk(s).
>>
>> urbansim.gridcell.total_number_of_possible_SSS_jobs......0.7 sec
>> Choice set size: 30
>> Compute variables ...
>>
>> urbansim.gridcell.is_near_arterial.......................0.4 sec
>> Estimate ...
>> submodel: 1
>> WARNING: Cannot find increase
>> Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC): 260.08180285
>> Number of Iterations: 12
>> ***********************************************
>> Log-likelihood is: -129.040901425
>> Null Log-likelihood is: -129.245500503
>> Likelihood ratio index: 0.0015830267003
>> Adj. likelihood ratio index: -0.00615418655747
>> Number of observations: 38
>> Suggested |t-value| > 1.90724569988
>> Convergence statistic is: 34.4413652987
>> -----------------------------------------------
>> Coeff_names estimate std err t-
>> values
>> BART 7.61714e+015 6.49589e+014
>> 11.7261
>> ***********************************************
>> Elapsed time: 0.128297602078 seconds
>> Estimating Industrial Employment Location Choice Model
>> (from urbansi
>> m.models.employment_location_choice_model): completed...4.1 sec
>> Simulate year 1990:
>> completed...................................10.6 sec
>> Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/
>> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\year_19
>> 90_log.txt
>> Starting simulation for year 1990:
>> completed........................10.6 sec
>> Start simulation run:
>> completed.........................................10.6 sec
>> Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/chittco_1990_baseyear_cache
>> \run_multiproces
>> s.log
>> C:\myworkspace\chittenden\estimation>python run_estimation.py -c
>> estimation_conf
>> ig_services --use-trapperkeeper=false --save-estimation-to-
>> baseyear- db=false
>> Cache Directory set to: C://urbansim_cache/
>> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache
>> Start simulation run: started on Mon Jan 28 16:50:44 2008
>> random seed = (1,)
>> Starting simulation for year 1990: started on Mon Jan 28
>> 16:50:44 2008
>> Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/
>> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\run_mul
>> tiprocess.log
>> Logging to file: C://urbansim_cache/
>> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\year_199
>> 0_log.txt
>> Simulate year 1990: started on Mon Jan 28 16:50:44 2008
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.vacant_land_and_building_type_data
>> set.VacantLandAndBuildingTypeDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.development_constraint_dataset.Dev
>> elopmentConstraintDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.zone_dataset.ZoneDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.household_dataset.HouseholdDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.gridcell_dataset.GridcellDataset
>> Creating object urbansim.datasets.job_dataset.JobDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.target_vacancy_dataset.TargetVacan
>> cyDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.job_building_type_dataset.JobBuild
>> ingTypeDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.development_event_history_dataset.
>> DevelopmentEventHistoryDataset
>> Creating object
>> urbansim.datasets.rate_dataset.RateDataset
>> Running Employment Relocation Model (from
>> urbansim.models.agent_relo
>> cation_model): started on Mon Jan 28 16:50:46 2008
>> compute_probabilities ...
>> compute_choices ...
>> Number of movers: 2436
>> Running Employment Relocation Model (from
>> urbansim.models.agent_relo
>> cation_model): completed...4.2 sec
>> 'agents_grouping_attribute' set to job.building_type.
>> Estimating Commercial Employment Location Choice Model
>> (from urbansi
>> m.models.employment_location_choice_model): started on Mon Jan 28
>> 16:50:51 2008
>> Number of agents for estimation: 11136
>> Sampling locations for estimation ...
>> Choice set size: 30
>> Compute variables ...
>>
>> urbansim.gridcell.is_near_arterial.......................0.3 sec
>> Estimate ...
>> submodel: 1
>> Estimating Commercial Employment Location Choice Model
>> (from urbansi
>> m.models.employment_location_choice_model): completed...1.1 sec
>> Simulate year 1990:
>> completed....................................7.8 sec
>> Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/
>> chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\year_19
>> 90_log.txt
>> Starting simulation for year 1990:
>> completed.........................7.8 sec
>> Start simulation run:
>> completed..........................................7.8 sec
>> Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/chittco_1990_baseyear_cache
>> \run_multiproces
>> s.log
>> Traceback (most recent call last):
>> File "run_estimation.py", line 72, in <module>
>> estimationRunner.run_estimation(my_configuration, model,
>> save_estimation_res
>> ults=save_estimation_results)
>> File "run_estimation.py", line 45, in run_estimation
>> self.estimator.estimate()
>> File "C:\opusworkspace-svn\urbansim\estimation\estimator.py",
>> line 68, in esti
>> mate
>> self.model_system.run(self.config,
>> write_datasets_to_cache_at_end_of_year=Fa
>> lse)
>> File "C:\opusworkspace-svn\urbansim\model_coordinators
>> \model_system.py", line
>> 135, in run
>> write_datasets_to_cache_at_end_of_year
>> =write_datasets_to_cache_at_end_of_yea
>> r)
>> File "C:\opusworkspace-svn\urbansim\model_coordinators
>> \model_system.py", line
>> 299, in _run_year
>> self.vardict[outputvar] = self.do_process(locals())
>> File "C:\opusworkspace-svn\urbansim\model_coordinators
>> \model_system.py", line
>> 377, in do_process
>> return eval(ev)
>> File "<string>", line 1, in <module>
>> File "C:\opusworkspace-svn\opus_core\model.py", line 60, in
>> logged_estimate_me
>> thod
>> results = estimate_method(*req_args, **opt_args)
>> File "C:\opusworkspace-svn\urbansim\models
>> \agent_location_choice_model_member.
>> py", line 57, in estimate
>> agents_index=agents_index[new_agents_index], **kwargs)
>> File "C:\opusworkspace-svn\urbansim\models
>> \location_choice_model.py", line 199
>> , in estimate
>> agents_index, procedure, estimate_config=estimate_config,
>> debuglevel=debugle
>> vel)
>> File "C:\opusworkspace-svn\opus_core\choice_model.py", line 313,
>> in estimate
>> del self.estimate_config["selected_choice"]
>> KeyError: 'selected_choice'
>> C:\myworkspace\chittenden\estimation>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Users mailing list
>> Users_at_urbansim.org
>> http://www.urbansim.org/mailman/listinfo/users
Received on Mon Jan 28 2008 - 14:51:29 PST