I'm currently working on estimating the Household Location Choice Model
and am having trouble producing a worthwhile result. I'm not able to get
the model to converge no matter the combination of variables that I have
included in the estimation procedure. Additionally, the convergence
statistic is always the same as the number of observations (even when I
change the number of households represented in the
households_for_estimation table). Finally, as can be seen in the output,
the coefficient estimates are all extremely small (with correspondingly
small t-values). Does this indicate that there is a problem with my
households_for_estimation table?
Perhaps I am confused about the function of the estimation procedure. I
understand that the number of movers and the unplaced agents are derived
by the Household Relocation Model, but how do these movers and unplaced
agents relate to the records in the households_for_estimation table?
More specifically, how can there be more movers / unplaced agents than
there are records in the households_for_estimation table? Perhaps too I
don't understand correctly what the dependent variable is that we are
modeling. I thought the estimation procedure evaluated the location
choice for each household in the household_for_estimation table compared
to the attributes of the other records in the choice set. Is this correct?
I've attached the output from an attempt at estimation to help
illustrate my point. Any input / advice would be most appreciated?
brian
Brian Voigt
Spatial Analysis Lab
University of Vermont
Burlington, VT 05405
brian.voigt_at_uvm.edu
C:\myworkspace\chittenden\estimation>python run_estimation.py -c chittenden.estimation.estimation_config_voigt --use-trapperkeeper=false
Cache Directory set to: C://urbansim_cache/chittco_1990_baseyear_cache
Start simulation run: started on Fri Feb 29 13:18:32 2008
random seed = (1,)
Starting simulation for year 1990: started on Fri Feb 29 13:18:32 2008
Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\run_multiprocess.log
Logging to file: C://urbansim_cache/chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\year_1990_log.txt
Simulate year 1990: started on Fri Feb 29 13:18:32 2008
Creating object urbansim.datasets.vacant_land_and_building_type_dataset.VacantLandAndBuildingTypeDataset
Creating object urbansim.datasets.development_constraint_dataset.DevelopmentConstraintDataset
Creating object urbansim.datasets.zone_dataset.ZoneDataset
Creating object urbansim.datasets.household_dataset.HouseholdDataset
Creating object urbansim.datasets.gridcell_dataset.GridcellDataset
Creating object urbansim.datasets.job_dataset.JobDataset
Creating object urbansim.datasets.target_vacancy_dataset.TargetVacancyDataset
Creating object urbansim.datasets.job_building_type_dataset.JobBuildingTypeDataset
Creating object urbansim.datasets.development_event_history_dataset.DevelopmentEventHistoryDataset
Creating object urbansim.datasets.rate_dataset.RateDataset
Running Household Relocation Model (from urbansim.models.agent_relocation_model): started on Fri Feb 29 13:18:33 2008
compute_probabilities ...
compute_choices ...
Number of movers: 11301
Running Household Relocation Model (from urbansim.models.agent_relocation_model): completed...4.8 sec
Unplace 941 agents.
Estimating Household Location Choice Model (from urbansim.models.household_location_choice_model): started on Fri Feb 29 13:18:38 200
Number of agents for estimation: 5000
Sampling locations for estimation ...
Sampling done in 1 chunk(s).
Choice set size: 30
Compute variables ...
urbansim.gridcell.is_in_floodplain.......................0.3 sec
urbansim.gridcell.ln_distance_to_highway.................0.3 sec
urbansim.gridcell.ln_residential_units_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.residential_units_within_walking_distance....0.6 sec
urbansim.gridcell.ln_residential_units_within_walking_distance: completed...0.7 sec
urbansim.gridcell.ln_total_employment_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.total_employment_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_jobs.................0.3 sec
urbansim.gridcell.total_employment_within_walking_distance: completed...0.3 sec
urbansim.gridcell.ln_total_employment_within_walking_distance: completed...0.3 sec
urbansim.gridcell.ln_total_population_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.total_population_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.population.....................0.0 sec
urbansim.gridcell.total_population_within_walking_distance: completed...0.1 sec
urbansim.gridcell.ln_total_population_within_walking_distance: completed...0.1 sec
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_jobs_within_walking_distance....0.1 sec
urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.is_in_development_type_group_SSS....0.7 sec
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance: completed...0.8 sec
urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance: completed...0.9 sec
urbansim.gridcell.percent_high_income_households_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_high_income_households_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_high_income_households
urbansim.household.is_high_income............0.0 sec
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_high_income_households: completed...0.0 sec
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_high_income_households_within_walking_distance: completed...0.1 sec
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_households_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_households...........0.0 sec
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_households_within_walking_distance: completed...0.1 sec
urbansim.gridcell.percent_high_income_households_within_walking_distance: completed...0.2 sec
urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.is_in_development_type_group_SSS....0.0 sec
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance: completed...0.1 sec
urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance: completed...0.1 sec
urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance
urbansim.gridcell.is_in_development_type_group_SSS....0.0 sec
urbansim.gridcell.number_of_development_type_group_SSS_within_walking_distance: completed...0.1 sec
urbansim.gridcell.percent_SSS_within_walking_distance: completed...0.1 sec
urbansim.household.income_category.......................0.0 sec
urbansim.household.is_without_children...................0.0 sec
urbansim.household_x_gridcell.cost_to_income_ratio
urbansim.gridcell.total_annual_rent
urbansim.gridcell.total_residential_value........0.6 sec
urbansim.gridcell.total_annual_rent: completed.......0.6 sec
urbansim.household_x_gridcell.cost_to_income_ratio: completed...0.6 sec
urbansim.household_x_gridcell.income_and_year_built......0.3 sec
Estimate ...
submodel: -2
WARNING: Cannot find increase
Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC): 34047.9738166
Number of Iterations: 10
***********************************************
Log-likelihood is: -17005.9869083
Null Log-likelihood is: -17005.9869083
Likelihood ratio index: 0.0
Adj. likelihood ratio index: -0.00105845077366
Number of observations: 5000
Suggested |t-value| > 2.91842306587
Convergence statistic is: 5000.0
-----------------------------------------------
Coeff_names estimate std err t-values
D2LAKE -2.20663e-016 0.000496508 -4.4443e-013
constant 9.5983e+015 1.65882e+014 57.8622
BFLOOD -1.31402e-013 0.242338 -5.42225e-013
BLDHW 8.11058e-015 0.0318991 2.54257e-013
BLDUW -3.49379e-015 0.0801334 -4.35996e-014
LE_W 2.20441e-015 0.0158806 1.38812e-013
BP_TW 3.0224e-015 0.0879053 3.43825e-014
JOBS_WWD -3.68946e-019 8.16678e-006 -4.51764e-014
PCW -6.93212e-018 0.00267387 -2.59254e-015
BPHIW 1.86301e-017 0.00165672 1.12451e-014
PIW 1.83701e-016 0.00412956 4.44844e-014
PRW -1.81968e-017 0.00109088 -1.66809e-014
PWATER -5.58252e-016 0.00327898 -1.70252e-013
PWETLA -2.67156e-016 0.00240074 -1.1128e-013
INC_CAT 0.359024 1.84247e+013 1.94861e-014
NO_KIDS -10.5912 1.78019e+014 -5.94949e-014
COST_INC_RAT 4.78316e-016 0.0382962 1.24899e-014
INC_YRBLT 1.85108e-022 6.06333e-009 3.0529e-014
***********************************************
Elapsed time: 12.9514644907 seconds
Estimating Household Location Choice Model (from urbansim.models.household_location_choice_model): completed...19.6 sec
Simulate year 1990: completed...................................26.4 sec
Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\year_1990_log.txt
Starting simulation for year 1990: completed........................26.4 sec
Start simulation run: completed.........................................26.4 sec
Closing log file: C://urbansim_cache/chittco_1990_baseyear_cache\run_multiprocess.log
Received on Fri Feb 29 2008 - 11:12:26 PST
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.2.0 : Mon Mar 03 2008 - 14:25:50 PST