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Policy Scenarios

UrbanSim is designed to simulate and evaluate the potential effects of multiple scenarios. We use the term scenario in the context of UrbanSim in a very specific way: a scenario is a combination of input data and assumptions to the model system, including macroeconomic assumptions regarding the growth of population and employment in the study area, the configuration of the transportation system assumed to be in place in specific future years, and general plans of local jurisdictions that will regulate the types of development allowed at each location.

In order to facilitate comparative analysis, a model user such as a Metropolitan Planning Organization will generally adopt a specific scenario as a base of comparison or all other scenarios. This base scenario is generally referred to as the `baseline' scenario, and this is usually based on the adopted or most likely to be adopted regional transportation plan, accompanied by the most likely assumptions regarding economic growth and land use policies. Once a scenario is created, it determines several inputs to UrbanSim:

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Control Totals: data on the aggregate amount of population and employment, by type, to be assumed for the region.
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Travel Data: data on zone to zone travel characteristics, from the travel model.
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Land Use Plan: data on general plans, assigned to individual parcels.
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Development Constraints: a set of rules that interpret the general plan codes, to indicate the allowed land use types and density ranges on each parcel.


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