Expected Sales Price Model (ESPM)

Objective

The Expected Sales Price Model (ESPM) predicts the price per unit of each proposed development project.

Algorithm

The model uses the same specification and estimated parameters from the Real Estate Price Model to predict expected prices.

Configuration

The configuration of the REPM in the parcel model system is summarized in the following table:

Element	Setting
Dataset	Development Proposals
Dependent Variable	Log of Price Per Unit (per housing unit for residential, per square foot for non-residential buildings)
Model Type	Regression
Submodels	Building Type - separate models are specified for each type of building
Independent Variables	Same as used in the Real Estate Price Model

Data

These tables are used by the Expected Sale Price Model in the parcel-based version of UrbanSim.

Table Name	Brief Description
buildings	Individual buildings located on parcels (can be many buildings to one parcel)
zones	Zones used in the travel model, for accessibility and density variables
travel_data	Zone-to-zone skims from the travel model, for accessibility variables
households	Household data, for socioeconomic and density variables
jobs	Employment data, for accessibility and density variables

-- PaulWaddell - 09 Dec 2009